Model predictions.Sportsbook odds.You see the edge.
Model probabilities go up before the game starts, get compared against the sportsbook's number, and are settled the next day against what actually happened. Wins and losses both stay on the record.
Live board
Open the full boardTop 6 by expected value · updated Oct 15, 5:15 PM MDT
Nothing is removed after the fact. Where a model is losing money, the number below says so.
| League | Market | Sample | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | spread | 1,175 | -7.5% |
| NFL | win probability + margin | 285 | -8.0% |
| MLB | moneyline | 673 | -3.1% |
| PGA | outright/top placement | 15,172 | No odds history |
| CBB | tournament winner probability | 2,002 | No odds history |
How it works
Probability, price, grade- 01
The model prices it
Every game and player market gets a probability from a versioned model, published before the event starts. The model version is attached to the pick, so you always know which one made the call.
- 02
The sportsbook prices it
We pull the live number from the book and compare. The gap between the two is the edge — and when no book is quoting a market, the row is labelled model-only rather than dressed up as a bet.
- 03
The result grades it
The next day the pick is settled against what actually happened and rolled into the season record. Nothing is removed after the fact, which is why some of the numbers on this page are negative.