Rank #1
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC vs MIL
Priced
HR probability
25.4%
Price
+402
dabble
Market probability
19.9%
Edge / EV
5.4%
EV 27.3%
Aug 31, 11:40 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
MLB Home Runs
Daily probability-first batter HR candidates from projected lineups, probable pitchers, venue context, and recent hitter form.
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Slate 2026-08-31 · Candidate model · afternoon refresh
Predictions Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Odds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Candidates
107
all eligible model rows
Priced
97
fresh sportsbook snapshots
Top-25 coverage
92.0%
23 of 25 priced
Model status
Candidate
Random Forest (v1)
Run window
afternoon
completed Aug 31, 8:41 PM
Data-source health
- 11 candidates do not have a fresh valid sportsbook price.
- Rows for games that have started or begin within five minutes are hidden.
- 9 candidates do not have a fresh valid sportsbook price.
All current candidates
Rows for games within five minutes of first pitch are hidden.
| Rank | Player / game | HR probability | Price | Market probability | Edge / EV | Status | Odds as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC vs MIL · Aug 31, 11:40 PM | 25.4% | +402 dabble | 19.9% | 5.4% EV 27.3% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 2 | Alex Bregman CHC vs MIL · Aug 31, 11:40 PM | 22.2% | +520 prophetx | 16.0% | 6.2% EV 37.7% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 3 | Pete Alonso BAL vs COL · Sep 1, 12:40 AM | 21.6% | +272 dabble | 26.9% | -5.3% EV -19.8% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 5 | Sal Stewart CIN vs SD · Aug 31, 10:40 PM | 21.3% | +512 dabble | 16.4% | 4.9% EV 30.1% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 6 | Fernando Tatis Jr. SD vs CIN · Aug 31, 10:40 PM | 20.3% | +388 dabble | 20.5% | -0.2% EV -1.0% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 8 | Heriberto Hernández MIA vs WSH · Aug 31, 10:45 PM | 19.1% | +343 dabble | 22.7% | -3.5% EV -15.2% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 9 | Wilyer Abreu BOS vs SEA · Aug 31, 10:45 PM | 18.8% | +650 prophetx | 13.3% | 5.5% EV 40.9% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 10 | Junior Caminero TB vs NYM · Aug 31, 10:40 PM | 18.6% | +405 dabble | 19.8% | -1.3% EV -6.1% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 11 | Jackson Chourio MIL vs CHC · Aug 31, 11:40 PM | 18.2% | +503 dabble | 16.6% | 1.6% EV 9.8% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 12 | Joc Pederson TEX vs ATH · Sep 1, 12:05 AM | 17.5% | Model only — no sportsbook price | — | — | Model only | — |
| 13 | Luis García Jr. NYY vs LAA · Sep 1, 1:38 AM | 17.3% | +630 prophetx | 13.2% | 4.1% EV 26.3% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 14 | Trent Grisham NYY vs LAA · Sep 1, 1:38 AM | 17.1% | +520 prophetx | 15.7% | 1.4% EV 6.0% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 15 | Jeremy Peña HOU vs CWS · Sep 1, 12:10 AM | 16.9% | +797 dabble | 11.2% | 5.7% EV 51.2% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 16 | Francisco Lindor NYM vs TB · Aug 31, 10:40 PM | 16.6% | +579 dabble | 14.8% | 1.8% EV 12.7% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 17 | Griffin Conine MIA vs WSH · Aug 31, 10:45 PM | 16.5% | Model only — no sportsbook price | — | — | Model only | — |
| 18 | Coby Mayo BAL vs COL · Sep 1, 12:40 AM | 16.3% | +375 dabble | 21.1% | -4.8% EV -22.4% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 19 | Nolan Arenado AZ vs PHI · Sep 1, 1:40 AM | 16.2% | +1166 dabble | 7.9% | 8.3% EV 105.5% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 20 | Kyle Schwarber PHI vs AZ · Sep 1, 1:40 AM | 16.2% | +340 dabble | 22.8% | -6.6% EV -28.9% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 22 | Randy Arozarena SEA vs BOS · Aug 31, 10:45 PM | 15.9% | +681 dabble | 12.8% | 3.0% EV 23.8% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 23 | Lawrence Butler ATH vs TEX · Sep 1, 12:05 AM | 15.6% | +759 dabble | 11.7% | 3.9% EV 34.3% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 24 | Jackson Merrill SD vs CIN · Aug 31, 10:40 PM | 15.6% | +415 dabble | 19.5% | -4.0% EV -19.8% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 25 | Munetaka Murakami CWS vs HOU · Sep 1, 12:10 AM | 15.5% | +360 prophetx | 21.3% | -5.8% EV -28.5% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 26 | Tyler Stephenson CIN vs SD · Aug 31, 10:40 PM | 15.3% | +619 dabble | 14.0% | 1.3% EV 10.3% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 27 | Abimelec Ortiz WSH vs MIA · Aug 31, 10:45 PM | 15.2% | +588 dabble | 14.6% | 0.6% EV 4.6% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
| 28 | Andrés Chaparro WSH vs MIA · Aug 31, 10:45 PM | 15.1% | +524 dabble | 16.1% | -1.1% EV -6.0% | Priced | Aug 31, 8:40 PM |
Rank #2
Alex Bregman
CHC vs MIL
Priced
HR probability
22.2%
Price
+520
prophetx
Market probability
16.0%
Edge / EV
6.2%
EV 37.7%
Aug 31, 11:40 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #3
Pete Alonso
BAL vs COL
Priced
HR probability
21.6%
Price
+272
dabble
Market probability
26.9%
Edge / EV
-5.3%
EV -19.8%
Sep 1, 12:40 AMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #5
Sal Stewart
CIN vs SD
Priced
HR probability
21.3%
Price
+512
dabble
Market probability
16.4%
Edge / EV
4.9%
EV 30.1%
Aug 31, 10:40 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #6
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs CIN
Priced
HR probability
20.3%
Price
+388
dabble
Market probability
20.5%
Edge / EV
-0.2%
EV -1.0%
Aug 31, 10:40 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #8
Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs WSH
Priced
HR probability
19.1%
Price
+343
dabble
Market probability
22.7%
Edge / EV
-3.5%
EV -15.2%
Aug 31, 10:45 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #9
Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs SEA
Priced
HR probability
18.8%
Price
+650
prophetx
Market probability
13.3%
Edge / EV
5.5%
EV 40.9%
Aug 31, 10:45 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #10
Junior Caminero
TB vs NYM
Priced
HR probability
18.6%
Price
+405
dabble
Market probability
19.8%
Edge / EV
-1.3%
EV -6.1%
Aug 31, 10:40 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #11
Jackson Chourio
MIL vs CHC
Priced
HR probability
18.2%
Price
+503
dabble
Market probability
16.6%
Edge / EV
1.6%
EV 9.8%
Aug 31, 11:40 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #12
Joc Pederson
TEX vs ATH
Model only
HR probability
17.5%
Price
Model only — no sportsbook price
Sep 1, 12:05 AM
Rank #13
Luis García Jr.
NYY vs LAA
Priced
HR probability
17.3%
Price
+630
prophetx
Market probability
13.2%
Edge / EV
4.1%
EV 26.3%
Sep 1, 1:38 AMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #14
Trent Grisham
NYY vs LAA
Priced
HR probability
17.1%
Price
+520
prophetx
Market probability
15.7%
Edge / EV
1.4%
EV 6.0%
Sep 1, 1:38 AMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #15
Jeremy Peña
HOU vs CWS
Priced
HR probability
16.9%
Price
+797
dabble
Market probability
11.2%
Edge / EV
5.7%
EV 51.2%
Sep 1, 12:10 AMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #16
Francisco Lindor
NYM vs TB
Priced
HR probability
16.6%
Price
+579
dabble
Market probability
14.8%
Edge / EV
1.8%
EV 12.7%
Aug 31, 10:40 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #17
Griffin Conine
MIA vs WSH
Model only
HR probability
16.5%
Price
Model only — no sportsbook price
Aug 31, 10:45 PM
Rank #18
Coby Mayo
BAL vs COL
Priced
HR probability
16.3%
Price
+375
dabble
Market probability
21.1%
Edge / EV
-4.8%
EV -22.4%
Sep 1, 12:40 AMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #19
Nolan Arenado
AZ vs PHI
Priced
HR probability
16.2%
Price
+1166
dabble
Market probability
7.9%
Edge / EV
8.3%
EV 105.5%
Sep 1, 1:40 AMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #20
Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs AZ
Priced
HR probability
16.2%
Price
+340
dabble
Market probability
22.8%
Edge / EV
-6.6%
EV -28.9%
Sep 1, 1:40 AMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #22
Randy Arozarena
SEA vs BOS
Priced
HR probability
15.9%
Price
+681
dabble
Market probability
12.8%
Edge / EV
3.0%
EV 23.8%
Aug 31, 10:45 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #23
Lawrence Butler
ATH vs TEX
Priced
HR probability
15.6%
Price
+759
dabble
Market probability
11.7%
Edge / EV
3.9%
EV 34.3%
Sep 1, 12:05 AMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #24
Jackson Merrill
SD vs CIN
Priced
HR probability
15.6%
Price
+415
dabble
Market probability
19.5%
Edge / EV
-4.0%
EV -19.8%
Aug 31, 10:40 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #25
Munetaka Murakami
CWS vs HOU
Priced
HR probability
15.5%
Price
+360
prophetx
Market probability
21.3%
Edge / EV
-5.8%
EV -28.5%
Sep 1, 12:10 AMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #26
Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs SD
Priced
HR probability
15.3%
Price
+619
dabble
Market probability
14.0%
Edge / EV
1.3%
EV 10.3%
Aug 31, 10:40 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #27
Abimelec Ortiz
WSH vs MIA
Priced
HR probability
15.2%
Price
+588
dabble
Market probability
14.6%
Edge / EV
0.6%
EV 4.6%
Aug 31, 10:45 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
Rank #28
Andrés Chaparro
WSH vs MIA
Priced
HR probability
15.1%
Price
+524
dabble
Market probability
16.1%
Edge / EV
-1.1%
EV -6.0%
Aug 31, 10:45 PMOdds Aug 31, 8:40 PM
107 candidates
Page 1 of 5
Priced rows are snapshots from the publication run. Historical edges are never recalculated from newer odds.