Results
Official outcomes graded against the published pregame snapshot, with sportsbook performance separated from model-only accuracy.
Updated Oct 15, 6:12 PM MDT
Graded success rates
| League | Market | Model | Sample | Priced | W-L-P | Hit Rate | Priced hit | Model-only | Flat ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | spread | v3 | 127 | — | 58-69-0 | 45.7% | — | — | -12.8% |
| NBA | winner | v3 | 127 | — | 75-52-0 | 59.1% | — | — | n/a |
| NFL | spread | nfl-v2-live-20260906 | 79 | — | 34-45-0 | 43.0% | — | — | -17.8% |
| NFL | winner | nfl-v2-live-20260906 | 79 | — | 44-35-0 | 55.7% | — | — | n/a |
| MLB | winner | v3 | 14 | — | 8-6-0 | 57.1% | — | — | n/a |
| NFL | spread | v1 | 32 | — | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | — | — | -40.3% |
| NFL | winner | v1 | 32 | — | 15-17-0 | 46.9% | — | — | n/a |
| MLB | home_run top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | 86 | 83 | 16-70-0 | 18.6% | 16.9% | 3 · 66.7% | 13.8% |
| MLB | home_run top_25 | mlb-hr-v1 | 132 | 124 | 20-112-0 | 15.2% | 16.1% | 8 · 0.0% | 9.1% |
| MLB | home_run top_50 | mlb-hr-v1 | 220 | 213 | 39-181-0 | 17.7% | 17.8% | 7 · 14.3% | 30.1% |
| MLB | home_run field | mlb-hr-v1 | 554 | 516 | 77-477-0 | 13.9% | 14.1% | 38 · 10.5% | 17.2% |
| PGA | top10 | pga-baseline-v0 | 1,000 | — | 177-823-0 | 17.7% | — | — | n/a |
| PGA | winner | pga-baseline-v0 | 1,000 | — | 15-985-0 | 1.5% | — | — | n/a |
Recent game grades
| Date | Game | Model | Spread | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | CHA @ BOS 93-114 | v3 | win | win |
| Oct 14 | NO @ DAL 101-97 | v3 | loss | loss |
| Oct 14 | CHI @ MIL 125-104 | v3 | loss | win |
| Oct 14 | PHX @ SA 103-123 | v3 | win | loss |
| Oct 14 | BKN @ MIA 128-144 | v3 | win | loss |
| Oct 14 | DEN @ LAC 110-122 | v3 | win | win |
| Oct 14 | DET @ MIN 128-106 | v3 | loss | loss |
| Oct 13 | CLE @ ORL 116-132 | v3 | win | loss |
| Oct 13 | GS @ LAL 101-89 | v3 | loss | win |
| Oct 13 | NY @ TOR 98-148 | v3 | win | win |
| Oct 13 | IND @ OKC 112-114 | v3 | win | loss |
| Oct 13 | POR @ SAC 110-98 | v3 | loss | win |
Recent player-market grades
| Date/Event | Player | Market | Model | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Sep 27 | Isaac Paredes | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Sep 27 | Jeremy Peña | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Sep 27 | Elly De La Cruz | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Sep 27 | Vinnie Pasquantino | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | hit priced snapshot |
| Sep 27 | Zack Gelof | HR top_25 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Sep 27 | Hunter Goodman | HR top_25 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Sep 27 | Randy Arozarena | HR top_25 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| baycurrent_classic_2026 | Jackson Suber | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T41 |
| baycurrent_classic_2026 | Jacob Bridgeman | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T2 |
| baycurrent_classic_2026 | Kevin Roy | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T13 |
| baycurrent_classic_2026 | Ben Kohles | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T17 |
| baycurrent_classic_2026 | John Parry | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T23 |
| baycurrent_classic_2026 | Tony Finau | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T41 |
| baycurrent_classic_2026 | David Lipsky | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T54 |
| baycurrent_classic_2026 | Ryo Hisatsune | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T41 |