2026 Grading & Backtest Roundup
Season results computed live from graded result tables, paired with the latest persisted backtest evidence.
Updated 2026-07-17T16:20:44.961Z
What's now graded automatically
NBA, NFL, and MLB spread and winner outcomes are graded in the daily workflows, alongside MLB home run outcomes. PGA placement results are graded in the tournament workflow.
Those grades persist to Supabase, giving the dashboard a durable results history instead of a point-in-time pipeline view.
Graded results to date
| League | Market | Model | Sample | W-L-P | Hit Rate | Flat ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | spread | v3 | 74 | 34-40-0 | 45.9% | -12.3% |
| NBA | winner | v3 | 74 | 50-24-0 | 67.6% | n/a |
| NFL | spread | v2 | 55 | 26-29-0 | 47.3% | -9.8% |
| NFL | winner | v2 | 55 | 35-20-0 | 63.6% | n/a |
| NFL | spread | v1 | 15 | 6-9-0 | 40.0% | -23.6% |
| NFL | winner | v1 | 15 | 11-4-0 | 73.3% | n/a |
| PGA | top10 | pga-baseline-v0 | 612 | 41-571-0 | 6.7% | n/a |
| PGA | winner | pga-baseline-v0 | 612 | 4-608-0 | 0.7% | n/a |
Backtest snapshot
| Sport | Best measured ROI | Calibration available | Approved | Candidate | Blocked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBB | n/a | 1 of 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MLB | -3.1% | 1 of 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NBA | -7.5% | 0 of 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| NFL | -8.0% | 1 of 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PGA | n/a | 1 of 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Where to look next