2026 Grading & Backtest Roundup
Season results computed live from graded result tables, paired with the latest persisted backtest evidence.
Updated Aug 31, 9:55 PM
What's now graded automatically
NBA, NFL, and MLB spread and winner outcomes are graded in the daily workflows, alongside MLB home run outcomes. PGA placement results are graded in the tournament workflow.
Those grades persist to Supabase, giving the dashboard a durable results history instead of a point-in-time pipeline view.
Graded results to date
| League | Market | Model | Sample | W-L-P | Hit Rate | Flat ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | spread | v3 | 74 | 34-40-0 | 45.9% | -12.3% |
| NBA | winner | v3 | 74 | 50-24-0 | 67.6% | n/a |
| NFL | spread | v2 | 55 | 26-29-0 | 47.3% | -9.8% |
| NFL | winner | v2 | 55 | 35-20-0 | 63.6% | n/a |
| NFL | spread | v1 | 15 | 6-9-0 | 40.0% | -23.6% |
| NFL | winner | v1 | 15 | 11-4-0 | 73.3% | n/a |
| MLB | home_run top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | 93 | 15-78-0 | 16.1% | -7.4% |
| MLB | home_run top_25 | mlb-hr-v1 | 135 | 18-117-0 | 13.3% | 3.2% |
| MLB | home_run top_50 | mlb-hr-v1 | 217 | 39-178-0 | 18.0% | 2.4% |
| MLB | home_run field | mlb-hr-v1 | 548 | 55-493-0 | 10.0% | -37.2% |
| PGA | top10 | pga-baseline-v0 | 1,000 | 131-869-0 | 13.1% | n/a |
| PGA | winner | pga-baseline-v0 | 1,000 | 12-988-0 | 1.2% | n/a |
Backtest snapshot
| Sport | Best measured ROI | Calibration available | Approved | Candidate | Blocked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBB | n/a | 1 of 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MLB | -3.1% | 1 of 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NBA | -7.5% | 0 of 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| NFL | -8.0% | 1 of 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PGA | n/a | 1 of 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Where to look next