Results
Official outcomes graded against the published pregame snapshot, with sportsbook performance separated from model-only accuracy.
Updated Aug 31, 8:41 PM
Graded success rates
| League | Market | Model | Sample | Priced | W-L-P | Hit Rate | Priced hit | Model-only | Flat ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | spread | v3 | 74 | — | 34-40-0 | 45.9% | — | — | -12.3% |
| NBA | winner | v3 | 74 | — | 50-24-0 | 67.6% | — | — | n/a |
| NFL | spread | v2 | 55 | — | 26-29-0 | 47.3% | — | — | -9.8% |
| NFL | winner | v2 | 55 | — | 35-20-0 | 63.6% | — | — | n/a |
| NFL | spread | v1 | 15 | — | 6-9-0 | 40.0% | — | — | -23.6% |
| NFL | winner | v1 | 15 | — | 11-4-0 | 73.3% | — | — | n/a |
| MLB | home_run top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | 93 | 29 | 15-78-0 | 16.1% | 17.2% | 64 · 15.6% | -7.4% |
| MLB | home_run top_25 | mlb-hr-v1 | 135 | 41 | 18-117-0 | 13.3% | 14.6% | 94 · 12.8% | 3.2% |
| MLB | home_run top_50 | mlb-hr-v1 | 217 | 67 | 39-178-0 | 18.0% | 16.4% | 150 · 18.7% | 2.4% |
| MLB | home_run field | mlb-hr-v1 | 548 | 183 | 55-493-0 | 10.0% | 8.2% | 365 · 11.0% | -37.2% |
| PGA | top10 | pga-baseline-v0 | 1,000 | — | 131-869-0 | 13.1% | — | — | n/a |
| PGA | winner | pga-baseline-v0 | 1,000 | — | 12-988-0 | 1.2% | — | — | n/a |
Recent game grades
| Date | Game | Model | Spread | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13 | NY @ SA 94-90 | v3 | loss | loss |
| Jun 10 | SA @ NY 106-107 | v3 | loss | win |
| Jun 8 | SA @ NY 115-111 | v3 | loss | loss |
| May 29 | SA @ OKC 111-103 | v3 | loss | loss |
| May 27 | OKC @ SA 91-118 | v3 | win | win |
| May 25 | SA @ OKC 114-127 | v3 | win | win |
| May 24 | NY @ CLE 130-93 | v3 | loss | win |
| May 23 | OKC @ SA 82-103 | v3 | win | win |
| May 22 | NY @ CLE 121-108 | v3 | loss | win |
| May 21 | OKC @ SA 123-108 | v3 | loss | loss |
| May 20 | CLE @ NY 93-109 | v3 | win | win |
| May 19 | SA @ OKC 113-122 | v3 | win | win |
Recent player-market grades
| Date/Event | Player | Market | Model | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | hit priced snapshot |
| Aug 30 | Pete Alonso | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Aug 30 | Matt Olson | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Aug 30 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Aug 30 | Sal Stewart | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | hit priced snapshot |
| Aug 30 | Alex Bregman | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Aug 30 | Wilyer Abreu | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| Aug 30 | Heriberto Hernández | HR top_10 | mlb-hr-v1 | miss priced snapshot |
| tour_championship_2026 | Scottie Scheffler | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | 1 |
| tour_championship_2026 | Justin Rose | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T18 |
| tour_championship_2026 | Si Woo Kim | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T14 |
| tour_championship_2026 | Jacob Bridgeman | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T4 |
| tour_championship_2026 | Gary Woodland | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | 29 |
| tour_championship_2026 | Chris Gotterup | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T4 |
| tour_championship_2026 | Kristoffer Reitan | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | 25 |
| tour_championship_2026 | Alex Fitzpatrick | Top 10 | pga-baseline-v0 | T4 |