MLB Markets

Choose a baseball market or inspect live team winner probabilities.

Updated Aug 31, 9:53 PM

Daily batter home-run probabilities and market edges.

Pre-live team winner probabilities.

Home -1.5 research model (v1). Model-only when sportsbook prices are unavailable.

Over/under research model (v1). Model-only when sportsbook prices are unavailable.

Starter strikeout research model (v1). Artifact not committed; codex will retrain.

Model evaluation and edges

as of 2026-08-07

Held-out games

1,669

Edge rows

14,989

Free odds coverage

100.0%

Positive EV moneylines

1,013

Model evaluation and market availability

Time-split test metrics; statistical signals without a price are not sportsbook EV.

Market	Test rows	Metric	Odds	Gate
Batter home runs	8,185	Brier 0.102	Not available	candidate
Moneyline	1,669	Brier 0.247	100.0% joined	candidate
Pitcher strikeouts	3,267	MAE 1.805	Not available	review
Run line	1,669	Brier 0.227	Not available	candidate
Totals	1,669	Brier 0.248	Not available	candidate

Pre-live team moneyline probabilities

Team moneyline probabilities publish once the day's schedule and prices are in. The home-run board above runs on its own cadence.