NFL Performance
Windowed live grades by market, plus persisted model evaluation evidence.
Weekly team & TD board
Open market| Model | Market | Sample | W-L-P | Hit rate | Flat -110 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nfl-v2-live-20260906 | spread | 79 | 34-45-0 | 43.0% | -17.8% |
| nfl-v2-live-20260906 | winner | 79 | 44-35-0 | 55.7% | n/a |
| v1 | spread | 32 | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | -40.3% |
| v1 | winner | 32 | 15-17-0 | 46.9% | n/a |
Weekly ATS hit rate & flat units
Persisted backtests
Evaluation runs stored in Supabase, separate from live grading.
Evaluation runs
| Evaluation | Model | Test range | Accuracy | AUC | Brier / log loss | ROI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| performance_history_nfl_2026_live_win_probability_+_margin | nfl-v2-live-20260906 | n/a–n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a / n/a | n/a | candidate |
| performance_history_nfl_2025_spread | v1 | n/a–n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a / n/a | n/a | candidate |
Accuracy over time