NFL Performance
Windowed live grades by market, plus persisted model evaluation evidence.
Weekly team & TD board
Open market| Model | Market | Sample | W-L-P | Hit rate | Flat -110 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nfl-v2-live-20260906 | spread | 63 | 26-37-0 | 41.3% | -21.2% |
| nfl-v2-live-20260906 | winner | 63 | 37-26-0 | 58.7% | n/a |
| v1 | spread | 16 | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | -40.3% |
| v1 | winner | 16 | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | n/a |
Weekly ATS hit rate & flat units
Persisted backtests
Evaluation runs stored in Supabase, separate from live grading.
Evaluation runs
| Evaluation | Model | Test range | Accuracy | AUC | Brier / log loss | ROI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| performance_history_nfl_2026_live_win_probability_+_margin | nfl-v2-live-20260906 | n/a–n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a / n/a | n/a | candidate |
| performance_history_nfl_2025_spread | v1 | n/a–n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a / n/a | n/a | candidate |
Accuracy over time