MLB Performance
Windowed live grades by market, plus persisted model evaluation evidence.
Winners
Open marketNo graded results are available in this window.
Home runs
Open marketHit rates are split by top-k bucket and model version.
| Model | Market | Sample | W-L-P | Hit rate | Flat -110 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb-hr-v1 | home_run top_10 | 55 | 9-46-0 | 16.4% | -7.4% |
| mlb-hr-v1 | home_run top_25 | 81 | 12-69-0 | 14.8% | 3.2% |
| mlb-hr-v1 | home_run top_50 | 131 | 24-107-0 | 18.3% | 2.4% |
| mlb-hr-v1 | home_run field | 348 | 29-319-0 | 8.3% | -37.2% |
Persisted backtests
Evaluation runs stored in Supabase, separate from live grading.
Evaluation runs
| Evaluation | Model | Test range | Accuracy | AUC | Brier / log loss | ROI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| performance_history_mlb_2026_ytd_moneyline | v3 | n/a–n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a / n/a | n/a | candidate |
Accuracy over time